The logistics sector sort of stalled out in September 2025 as softer freight demand in the U.S. along with a cooling warehouse market pulled the sector growth index to its minimum level in six months.
Every month, a coalition of university business schools along with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals happens to release the Logistic Managers’ Index (LMI), which happens to measure the rate of expansion or contraction throughout the key areas of U.S. supply chain activity in order to provide a snapshot of the health and momentum pertaining to the industry. Any reading that is over 50 indicates expansion; however, the readings trending downward or even being more than 50 happen to signal that growth is indeed slowing, therefore offering an early indicator of cooling demand or, for that matter, shifting capacity in the logistics networks.
As per the LMI that was released on October 9, 2025, the overall logistics activity went on to register a 57.4 reading in September 2025, which was down almost two points from 59.3 in August 2025. That goes on to mark the lowest reading for the index ever since March 2025, thereby suggesting that a post-summer rebound within the freight and warehousing has started to taper off as companies go on to recalibrate inventories and, at the same time, also brace for a softer peak season.
When it comes to the transportation capacity sector, readings dipped by 2.2 points to 55.1 between August 2025 and September 2025, therefore indicating that the available freight capacity continued to expand widely, although at a much slower pace, and that carriers happened to be adjusting to softer shipping volumes since the demand has leveled off. Transportation utilization values also saw a decline by almost 5 points month-to-month to a 55.0 reading, which was well short of the eight-year average of 65.1 that was recorded in September 2025.
As far as the warehousing side is concerned, the capacity readings slightly crept up by almost one point to 51.6 between August 2025 and September 2025, whereas the utilization grew by over three points to 65.3, hence signaling continued but uneven demand when it comes to space. But the warehouse price ratings dropped from over six points to 66.0, thereby marking their slowest rate in terms of growth ever since the spring.
As the freight demand in the U.S. slowed, the retailers as well as other downstream firms continued to go ahead with restocking ahead of the holidays, though the scores for inventory levels dropped by three points between August 2025 and September 2025 to 55.7, while the inventory costs went on to remain high at 75.5. Analysts warned that the higher expenditures could very well squeeze margins if the consumer demand softens during what is expected to be quite a challenging season for the U.S. shoppers.
Looking forward, the researchers anticipate a very modest expansion through the next year, with the projected LMI for the forthcoming 12 months dipping to 59.6 from the 63.9 forecast of August 2025. The slowing manufacturing sector, trade uncertainty as well as potential tariff hikes are all clouding the outlook, apart from the ongoing government shutdown, which is anticipated to leave 750,000 federal workers getting laid off.
